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This is it. The entire college basketball season comes down to one game at 9:20 p.m. ET Monday to determine the NCAA men’s basketball champion, between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Kansas Jayhawks.
North Carolina (29-9) is coming off an emotional battle, beating Duke for a second time to both hand Mike Krzyzewski a loss in his final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium and to end his career. The Tar Heels won Saturday’s national semifinal 81-77.
Kansas advanced past a shorthanded Villanova 81-65 to advance. The Jayhawks jumped out to a 10-0 lead and led wire to wire. Villanova was able to cut the deficit to six in the second half but ran out of steam.
The line opened at Kansas -4 with an over/under of 153.5. The line has shifted to Kansas -4.5 with the over/under sticking as of this writing.
Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview: Contest UNC 3-pointers
Kansas is an above-average defensive team, and the Jayhawks really excel at contesting 3-pointers and force teams to convert 29.7%. That’s the 20th best mark in the country. They also are 101st in forcing teams to convert 41.9% of all field goal attempts.
Kansas has one of the best offenses in the country, scoring 78.6 points per game, the 29th best mark in the country. The Jayhawks convert 48.0% of field goal attempts, 23rd in the nation, and hit 36.1% of 3-pointers, the 66th best mark in the country. They also grab 35.1 rebounds per game, 49th in the country.
Ochai Ogbaji only took eight shots against Villanova but hit six, all of 3s, en route to 21 points. He leads the team at 15.8 points per game in the tournament.
It’ll be a tough matchup for David McCormack, who scored a game-high 25 points. Arizona State transfer Remy Martin has come on strong, upping his scoring average by five points in the postseason.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview: Inside and out
North Carolina’s offense is as strong as Kansas, scoring 78.6 points per game, which is 28th in the country. The Tar Heels convert 37.4% of 3-point attempts, the 31st best mark, and hit 77.0% of free throw attempts, 20th nationally. They are also 14th in rebounding at 36.9 per contest.
Armando Bacot is averaging 15.1 points and 15.6 rebounds per game in seven postseason games this season. The Tar Heels take team rebounding to heart from there. Brady Manek is scoring a team-best 18.7 points per game during the postseason and is converting 42.3% of 3-point attempts.
Caleb Love has been spectacular, scoring 28 points to beat Duke in the semifinal and averaging 17.1 points per game in the postseason.
North Carolina is 21-16-1 against the spread and 22-15-1 on over/unders this season. The Tar Heels are 7-2 against the spread in the postseason.
Kansas is 20-18-1 against the spread and 21-18 on over/unders this season. The Jayhawks are 6-2 against the spread this postseason.
Both teams are strong offensively, and the team who limits turnovers and clears rebounds should pull through. We’ll take Kansas to win but North Carolina to cover the 4.5.
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